Don’t Look Up: Will A Massive Asteroid Hit Earth In 2032?
Is a massive asteroid expected to hit earth in 2032? Astronomers believe there’s a 1.3% chance of it actually happening!
A 300-foot massive asteroid was recently spotted in the sky and experts currently believe that there’s a 1.3% chance that it will hit earth in 2032. However, we might not know the real chances of it happening until 2028—which really isn’t too far away now! This massive asteroid has triggered global planetary defense procedures for the first time. The Asteroid 2024 YR4 was spotted using an automated telescope in Chile towards the end of December. It has since risen to the top of impact risk lists that are maintained by US and European space agencies, per The Guardian.
Will A Massive Asteroid Hit Earth In 2032?
While a 1.3% chance of hitting earth might sound pretty significant let’s remember that it means there’s essentially a 99% chance that it won’t happen. However, the fact that they are currently saying there’s a 1.3% chance of it happening is worth noting. It’s being brought to our attention for a reason, right?
Colin Snodgrass, a professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, tells The Guardian, “Most likely this one will pass by harmlessly. It just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that. The longer we follow its orbit, the more accurate our future predictions of its trajectory become.” The massive asteroid ranks as a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale which indicates a close encounter that deserves attention from astronomers because there’s a 1% chance of greater of a collision in the next decade, per The Guardian. The Torino scale ranges from 0 (no risk) to 10 (when a collision is certain and poses a threat to the future of civilization as we know it). That sounds scary and intense!
Only 1 asteroid has received a higher rating and that was Apophis which made headlines back in 2004 as a 4 on the Torino scale. It was later downgraded. What’s next? Snodgrass tells The Guardian, “The first step in the planetary defense response is to trigger further observations. If these observations don’t rule out an impact, the next steps will be more detailed characterization measurements using telescopes, and discussion of what space agencies could do in terms of more detailed reconnaissance and eventually mitigation missions. This asteroid is of the scale that a mission like Dart could be effective, if required, so we have the technology and it has been tested.”